The Dynamics of an Entangled Security Dilemma: China's Changing Nuclear Posture

Abstract Amid an intensifying rivalry with the United States, China is modernizing and significantly expanding its nuclear forces. These developments fuel concerns that China's traditional strategy premised on a limited arsenal for assured retaliation no-first-use policy undergoing major shift. Using Chinese-language materials, examination of Chinese debates about security environment future direction finds nuclear-conventional entangled dilemma emerging between States China. The shift in conventional balance force region U.S. development lower-yield weapons has led to greater fears use conflict. strategists increasingly believe nonnuclear strategic capabilities threaten Although there evidence strategy, changing posture ensure second-strike capability, including by relying advanced (e.g., counterspace capabilities, cyber weapons, electronic warfare) can target missile defense. dynamics may weaken arms race stability, they underscore why it will be challenging engage control.